大理州2016年脊髓灰质炎野病毒输入与传播风险评估

Risk assessment of input and spread of wild poliovirus in Dali prefecture in 2016

目的对大理州脊髓灰质炎野病毒输入与传播风险进行评估,识别风险薄弱地区和环节,为科学制定防控措施,阻止脊灰疫情输入与传播提供参考依据。方法在《云南省2016年脊髓灰质炎野病毒输入与传播风险评估方案》的基础上,通过专家会商法及查阅文献后改良部分评估指标,根据收集整理的资料,对人群免疫情况、AFP病例监测和境外输入风险进行评分,再乘以相应的权重系数,累加得到各县市的综合评分,依据综合评分以四分位数法判定风险等级。结果南涧县、大理市和巍山县为高风险;云龙等6个县为中风险;漾濞等3个县为低风险。结论各县市尤其是高风险地区,应根据薄弱环节采取针对性措施,加强常规免疫工作,提高人群免疫水平;加强AFP病例监测敏感性和质量;适时开展应急演练、提升疫情应对能力;加强宣传教育工作,巩固无脊灰状态。

Objective To assess input and spread risk of wild poliovirus in Dali prefecture,identify risk areas and links,provide scientific basis for prevention and control measures keep polio-free status in Dali prefecture. Methods Based on the Risk Assessment of the Input and Spread Risk of Wild Poliovirus in Yunnan Province in 2016,index of evaluation were improved by expert consultation methods and literature reviews. According to the data of collection,the herd immunity,the acute flaccid paralysis（ AFP） surveillance system and the wild poliovirus input risk were scored,and the weight coefficient was multiplied to get the comprehensive score of the citys and determined the risk grade by four quantile method according to the total score of the evaluation. Results Nanjian,Dali and Weishan were at the high risk,Yunlong and other 5 citys were at middle risk,and Yangbi and other 2 citys were at low risk. Conclusion All areas,especially high risk areas,specific strategies should be conducted to improve herd immunity,keep high sensitivity and quality AFP surveillance,carry out emergency drills in order to enhance the ability to respond to the epidemic,and enforce publicity and education to maintain polio-free status.