绿色增长下的导向性技术创新选择研究

Selection of directed technological innovation from the perspective of green growth

针对如何正确引导GHG排放的气候反馈经济损失下导向性技术创新,以实现长期的绿色增长这一问题,基于DICE模型,重构导向性技术创新不同的动力要素及其与气候变化之间的内生关系,建立了可体现绿色增长"均衡性"、"包容性"和"可持续性"的非线性最优控制模型.数值仿真结果显示:气候反馈经济损失不容小觑;偏于生产的绿色技术创新导向下社会生产力强劲但存在气候环境恶化风险,偏于减排的绿色技术创新导向下气候反馈经济损失小但存在增长动力匮乏风险,二者虽均可实现长期的绿色增长,但中性的绿色技术创新导向会更稳妥;偏于生产的绿色技术创新导向下人均消费变化率在短期内会显著提升.

Regarding the climate feedback economic losses caused by GHG emissions, how to guide the directed technological innovation exactly to achieve long-term green growth has become a major challenge. Based on DICE model, a nonlinear optimal control model, which considers the equilibrium, inclusiveness and sustainability of green growth, is established to reconstruct the endogenous relationship between the dynamic factors of directed technological innovation and climate innovation. The numerical simulation shows that： firstly, the cli- mate feedback economic losses should not be underestimated; secondly, under the guidance of green techno- logical innovation stressing production, social production is powerful but there is a risk of environmental degra- dation; under the guidance of green technological innovation stressing emission reduction, climate feedback economic losses are small but a risk of lack of growth momentum exists. Although, long-term green growth can be achieved by both directions, neutral green technological innovation will be more stable. Finally, the rate of per-capita consumption will be improved significantly in the short term under the first guidance.