中国海洋生态效率时空分异及其与海洋产业结构响应关系识别

Spatio-temporal Difference of Marine Eco-efficiency and Identification of Its Response Relationship with Marine Industrial Structure in China

采用超效率DEA模型对中国海洋生态效率进行测算,运用标准差椭圆对其进行空间可视化表达,最后运用VAR模型对海洋产业结构和海洋生态效率进行脉冲响应分析,以评测中国海洋生态效率时空差异并探究其与海洋产业结构响应关系。结论如下：中国沿海省份海洋第三产业比重占海洋生产总值较大,在研究期内呈现增长趋势;大多数省份海洋产业结构熵值下降,说明该类省份海洋产业发展平稳;在时间上,海洋生态效率总体上处于无效状态,海洋第三产业占比重高的年份,海洋生态效率相对较高;在空间上,海洋生态效率重心总体呈现向北移动趋势,表明北方海洋生态效率的优化进度快于南方;基于沿海各省脉冲响应图可以得出,各省份海洋产业结构对海洋生态效率的冲击最后都趋于平稳,主要原因在于随着中国海洋产业结构升级变动稳定,其对海洋生态效率的影响越来越小;在方差分解部分,沿海各省份海洋产业结构升级对海洋生态效率方差分解的贡献度较高,且呈现增长趋势,说明海洋产业结构升级对海洋生态效率的提升有一定的作用。

To evaluate the spatio-termporal difference of marine eco-efficiency of China and explore its response relationship with the structure of the marine industry, the super-efficiency DEA model, the standard deviation ellipse and VAR model were gradually applied to calculate the marine eco-efficiency, visualize spatially and analyze the impulse response of the marine industrial structure and marine eco-efficiency, respectively.The conclusions are as follows： 1） Marine tertiary industry has a large proportion of gross ocean product in coastal provinces of China, showing an increasing trend during the study. The entropy of marine industrial structure declines in most provinces, which indicate that the development of marine industry in these provinces is stable. 2） In terms of time series, marine eco-efficiency is invalid by and large, but the marine eco-efficiency is relatively high in the year when the marine tertiary industry has a high proportion of marine production. In terms of space, the gravity of marine eco-efficiency generally shows trend of moving to north, indicating that optimization of marine eco-efficiency in the north is faster than that in the south. 3） According to the impulse response charts of coastal provinces, it can be concluded that the impact of marine industrial structure of each province on marine eco-efficiency has finally stabilized. The main reason is that as China＇s marine industry structure stabilizes, its impact on marine eco-efficiency is getting smaller and smaller; From the perspective of variance decomposition, the marine industrial structure upgrading in coastal provinces has a higher contribution to the decomposition of marine eco-efficiency variance, and it shows a growth trend, indicating that the upgrading of marine industrial structure has a certain effect on the improvement of marine eco-efficiency.