四川省雅安市公路洪灾风险评估研究

Risk Assessment of Road Flood in Ya'an City,Sichuan Province

为评价公路洪灾的风险性,以雅安市为研究对象,基于公路洪灾致灾机理、破坏形态,综合考虑致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和灾情因子四方面因素,遴选出公路造价等11个指标构建公路洪灾风险评估指标体系.利用层次分析法、模糊概率理论建立公路洪灾风险评估模型,对雅安市公路洪灾风险进行区划.区划结果表明:雅安市公路洪灾风险性被分为高中风险亚区、中高风险亚区和中低风险亚区、低风险区四档三级.经济发达的雨城区的公路洪灾风险性较高,名山及西南部区县次之,宝兴、芦山的公路洪灾风险性较小;分区结果与近三年公路洪灾损失结果相符,评价结果有一定的科学性和参考价值.

Road floods have happened frequently in the past few years and caused great losses in the economy of Sichuan province.To assess the risk of road floods,a study was made with Ya＇an as the study area.Based on failure mechanisms and forms of road floods,and taking into consideration flood-causing factors,flood-developing environment,hazard-affected bodies and flooding factors,an index system of risk assessment for road flooding was constructed,which consisted of 11 relevant and pertinent indicators.Using the AHP-entrophy method and the theory of fuzzy probability,a risk assessment model was built and a map of risk of road floods in Ya＇an city was drawn.The results of road flood hazard zoning divided Ya＇an into a high-medium-risk area,a medium-high-risk area,a medium-low-risk area and a low-risk area.Of the four areas,Yucheng district,the central urban area of Ya＇an with a well developed economy,was shown to have the highest road flood risk,followed in sequence by Mingshan,Baoxing and Lushan.These results were consistent with the actual losses of road floods in the past 3 years.