基于实物期权的增量配电网投资决策

Real Options Based Investment Decision-making for Incremental Distribution Network

增量配电网放开后,增量配电区域内的电网资产收益将单独核算。无论是电网企业还是社会资本,都将面临新形势下的投资决策问题。首先针对增量配电网投资的盈利模式进行了分析,认为增量配电网投资收益带有多重不确定性。在此基础上,构建了增量配电网实物期权投资决策模型。同时结合增量配电网收益特性,运用模糊识别构建了波动率测算模型。最后通过算例分析验证了该模型的有效性。

With the investment liberalization of incremental distribution network,the network asset income within the incremental power distribution area will be calculated separately.Both power grid enterprises and social capital will face the investment decision-making under the new situation.The investment profit pattern of incremental distribution network is first analyzed and it is considered that there are multiple uncertainties in the investment return of incremental distribution network.Based on this,a real options based investment decision-making model for incremental distribution network is constructed.Meanwhile,combined with the characteristics of incremental distribution network revenue,the volatility estimation model is constructed by using fuzzy recognition method.Finally,an example is given to verify the validity of the model.