碳排放与夜间灯光的EKC曲线关系实证——基于动态空间面板模型

####Empirical Analysis on the Relation of Construction Land Carbon Emissions and Night-Time Light in China Based on Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Model

为了厘清我国碳排放与夜间灯光的关系，文章将EKc模型与动态空间面板回归相结合，并引入地理权重与经济权重，对我国1995-2015年的碳排放量与夜间灯光的关系进行实证。结果发现：（1）我国的碳排放受空间因素与经济因素的双重影响，其中，受空间因素的影响更为显著；（2）能源碳排放与夜间灯光之间基本存在倒“U”型的曲线关系，EKC拐点约在2069年前后到来；（3）我国建设用地碳排放存在正向的空间溢出效应与经济溢出效应，且两者的共同叠加延缓了建设用地碳排放拐点的到来；（4）经济发展的不同阶段，夜间灯光对碳排放增长的作用不同，在经济发展前期，主要表现为驱动作用；在经济发展后期，主要表现为抑制作用。

In order to study the relationship between night-time light and carbon emissions in China, this article integrates dynamic spatial panel data model and EKC model with spatial weights and economic weights and make an empirical analysis on the relation of construction land carbon emissions and night-time light in China during 1995-2015. The result shows： First, Chinese carbon emissions is influenced by economic factors and spatial factors, and the influence of spatial factors is more obviously. Second, carbon emissions and night-time light have poured ＂U＂ shape relation in China and the turning points will arrive in 2069. Third, the positive spatial spillover effect and economic spillover effect exist in carbon emissions, and the EKC turning point will be postponed by them. Forth, night-time light plays a different role in carbon emissions： in the early stage of economic development, it will promote the growth of the construction land carbon emission; in the late stage of economic development, it will prevent the growth of construction land carbon emission.