政府卫生支出结构对经济增长的影响——基于Lasso回归和面板门槛模型的分析

The Impact of Government Health Expenditure Structure on Economic Growth——Based on Lasso Regression and Panel Threshold Model

基于我国31个省（市、自治区）的面板数据，运用Lasso回归实证分析了政府卫生支出各部分结构对经济增长的影响，在此基础上，运用面板门槛回归模型进一步实证分析了政府卫生支出中医疗保障支出对经济增长的门槛效应。实证结果表明：政府卫生支出各部分结构中仅有政府医疗保障支出对经济增长有显著影响，而其他3个构成部分对经济增长的影响均不显著；政府医疗保障支出对经济增长有显著的正向促进作用，经济增长的产出大于政府对医疗保障的投入，且政府医疗保障支出对经济增长具有门槛效应，当人均固定资产投资处于不同的水平区间内，政府医疗保障支出对经济增长具有不同的促进作用；此外，教育经费投入、老年人口占比和少年人口占比也对经济增长表现出不同程度的推动作用。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces （ cities and autonomous regions ）, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the structure of government health expenditure on economic growth by the Lasso regression. Based on this, it makes further empirical analysis of the threshold effect of health care expenditure on economic growth in government health expenditure by Panel Threshold Regression model. Results show that, only the government medical security expenditure has significant impact on economic growth in the structure of government health expenditure, while the other three components have no significant impact on economic growth. Government medical security expenditure has a significant positive effect on economic growth, the output of economic growth is greater than the government investment in medical security. And the gov- ernment medical security expenditure has the threshold effect on economic growth, when the per capita fixed assets invest- ment is in different levels. The government medical security expenditure has different promoting effect to the economic growth. In addition, the investment of educational funds, the proportion of elderly population and the proportion of juvenile population also play a different role in promoting economic growth. Based on the above analysis conclusions, it puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations in the end.