基于PLS与ESDA的经济—能源—环境系统耦合协调发展研究

Coupling and Coordinated Development of Economy-Energy-Environment System Based on PLS-ESDA

在理论分析经济-能源-环境系统耦合协调演化机理的基础上，运用探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）工具与PLS路径模型，探讨中国省域经济-能源-环境（3E）复合系统耦合协调发展的空间分布特征、动态演进规律与空间集聚效应。研究结果表明：系统协调度在整体上呈现动态螺旋上升趋势；省域3E系统协调度存在空间自相关和空间集聚效应；中、东、西部耦合协调度呈现不同的空间聚集演化特征；协调发展空间集群逐渐趋向集聚加强状态。最后，提出应构建跨区域协调发展与可持续发展政策体系应对系统失调，缓解系统协调发展空间集聚趋势。

This paper analyzes the spatial distribution, agglomeration effect and dynamic evolution characteristics of the co- ordinated development of the China＇s provincial economy-energy-environment （3E） complex system based the theoretical a- nalysis of the coupling and coordination evolution mechanism by exploratory spatial data analysis （ESDA） and PLS path model. Results show that the system coordination＇s dynamic evolution trend is dynamic spiral rising, the coordination de- grees are spatial auto correlated; the coordination degree has spatial agglomeration effect, and there are different characteris- tics of spatial aggregation evolution in the Middle, East and West regions ; the spatial cluster of coordination degree gradual- ly tends to the state of spatial agglomeration and evolution, the coordinated development space cluster gradually tends to the state of spatial agglomeration. It puts some suggestion that, the regional coordinated development and sustainable develop- ment policy system should be made to alleviate the spatial agglomeration trend of the system coordinated development.