基于系统动力学的京津冀工业绿色发展路径研究

Research on the Industrial Green Development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Based on System Dynamics

建立了一个将经济、资源、环境、人口4个子系统相结合的系统动力学模型，选取京津冀2007-2016年工业发展相关数据研究了京津冀工业区绿色增长路径。结合现有的政策工具考虑了3种路径情景，即以经济发展为主情景、技术创新情景、政府投资情景。以工业增加值为发展目标，考察环境污染程度与工业能源消耗量为长期发展前景，分析并总结了京津冀工业绿色发展特点。京津冀工业发展对化石能源的依赖性很强，虽然技术创新可以在很大程度上降低环境污染但是并不能替代化石能源，而政府投资可以很好地为实现京津冀工业绿色发展提供保障。

This paper establishes a system dynamics model combining four subsystems of economy, resources, environment and population. And then, it analyzes the green growth path of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei industrial zone based on the data of in- dustrial development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2007 to 2016. It considers three path scenarios in combination with the existing policy tools, there are economic development-based scenarios, technological innovation scenarios and government investment scenarios. Taking the industrial added value of industry as the development goal, it considers the environmental pollution degree and industrial energy consumption as long - term development prospects, and then it analyzes and summari- zes the characteristics of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei industrial green development. The industrial development of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei has strong dependence on fossil energy. Although technological innovation can greatly reduce environmental pollution, it can not replace fossil energy, and government investment can provide a good guarantee for the green develop- ment of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei industry.