房价波动与居民消费:影响机理及调控思路

Housing Price Fluctuation and Household Consumption: Influencing Mechanism and Regulation

住房兼具消费品与投资品双重属性,房价波动影响居民消费亦具双重性:既存在促进居民消费的财富效应,又存在抑制居民消费的挤出效应,同时通过资产负债表效应、信心效应等影响居民消费和企业投资,进而影响宏观经济运行。以房价波动影响居民消费的倒U假设、房价波动的合理区间理论等为基础,房价合理调控需要在充分发挥住房民生保障功能的基础之上,构建兼顾公平与效率的房地产市场的利益分享机制,以实现房地产发展、扩大内需与经济增长的协同发展。

Housing has dual attributes of consumer goods and investment goods, and house price fluctuations have dual effects on household consumption. There is wealth effect to promote household consumption, and there is crowding-out effect to inhibit household consumption. At the same time, it affects household consumption and enterprise investment through balance sheet effect and confidence effect, and then affects macro economic operation. Based on the inverted U hypothesis of housing price fluctuation affecting residents＂ consumption and the reasonable interval theory of housing price fluctuation, the reasonable regulation of housing price needs to construct the benefit-sharing mechanism of the real estate market which takes into account fairness and efficiency on the basis of giving full play to the function of housing livelihood security, so as to realize the development of real estate and expand coordinated development between domestic demand and economic growth.