粮食最低收购价政策执行效果研究

Study on the effect of the policy implementation of the minimum grain purchase price

文章研究粮食最低收购价政策执行问题,探究是否实现政策制定的目的。首先利用官方给出的数据,借助于时间序列和隶属度函数建立粮食最低收购价政策执行问题的评估模型。然后对评估模型利用数据统计的SPSS软件进行分析,并借助求和自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)预测合理的最低收购价区间。最后,给出优化的建议能够在一定程度上实现对粮食种植的宏观调控。

This paper studies the problem of the policy implementation of the minimum grain purchase price, and explores the purpose of realizing the policy formulation. First of all, using the official data, the evaluation model of the policy implementation of the minimum purchase price of grain is established by using the time series and the membership function. Then the evaluation model is analyzed by SPSS software, and the reasonable minimum purchase price interval is predicted by the sum autoregressive moving average（ARIMA） model. Finally, the suggestions of optimization can achieve a certain degree of macro-control of grain planting.