浦口霾日突变影响因素分析

Haze Days in Pukou: Influence Factors on the Mutation

为探寻霾日异常变化原因,分析霾判别标准的改变、能见度自动观测和人为因素等对霾日的影响。笔者利用线性倾向估计、累积距平、M-K检验、滑动t检验等统计诊断方法对1981—2017年霾日进行统计分析。结果表明:1981年以来,浦口霾日共发生5次明显突变,突变点分别是1988年、2000年、2007年、2011年和2016年,除2016年之外,其他突变点都与影响因素变化有关。2007年之前影响霾日的因素主要是人为因素和观测环境的变化,其中,1988—1999年因人为因素影响,霾日数据已不具有使用价值;2007年开始霾判别标准的改变和能见度自动观测对霾日影响最为明显。2016年之前,霾日突变点与影响因素变化时间基本吻合,表明不同影响因素在不同时间段对霾日的影响比气象条件和空气质量更加显著。

The paper aims to find the abnormal change reasons of the haze days and to analyze the effects ofthe change of criteria, the use of automatic observation of visibility and human activities on haze days. Theauthor analyzed the data of haze days from 1981 to 2017 by the methods of linear tendency, accumulativeanomaly, M-K test, and slide t test. The results showed that： there were 5 obvious mutations of haze days inPukou since 1981, which were 1988, 2000, 2007, 2011 and 2016; except 2016, all the other mutation pointswere related to the change of influence factors of haze day. Before 2007, the main factors affecting mutationwere human activities and the change of observed environment; thereinto, the data of haze days had no usevalue due to the influence of human factors during 1988-1999; the change of haze criterion and the automaticvisibility observation had the most obvious effect on haze days at the beginning of 2007; before 2016, themutation points of haze days coincided with the change time of the influence factors, indicating that the effectsof different factors on haze days in different time periods were more significant than that of meteorologicalconditions and air quality.