1966—2015年辽宁省玉米气候生产潜力的时空特征

Spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic potential productivity of maize in Liaoning Province from 1966 to 2015

基于1966—2015年辽宁省46站逐日气象观测数据,分析辽宁省玉米生育期内各气候要素的年际变化趋势,通过机制法估算玉米生育期内光合、光温和气候生产潜力,利用EOF和REOF分解方法分析辽宁省玉米气候生产潜力时空分布特征。结果表明:1966—2015年辽宁省玉米生育期内的平均气温呈波动上升趋势,太阳辐射呈减少趋势,总降水的年际变化较大,呈波动下降趋势;在气候变化驱动下,光合生产潜力呈阶段性下降趋势,光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力呈波动上升趋势,但变化趋势都不显著; 21世纪以来相对于20世纪70—80年代,辽宁省玉米气候生产潜力有大幅度的增加;辽宁省玉米光合生产潜力从西南向东北逐渐降低,光温生产潜力呈带状分布特征; EOF分析获得的前2个模态解释了总方差的86.47%,结果基本揭示了辽宁省玉米气候生产潜力以中部地区为中心、空间分布变化趋势呈整体一致性的特征,其中辽宁南部沿海地区与辽宁东部地区呈反向变化趋势;REOF分析结果表明,辽宁省玉米气候生产潜力可以分为4个典型分布类型,高值区位于辽宁中部和南部沿海地区,低值区位于辽宁东部和辽西半干旱地区。

Based on daily meteorological observation data of 46 stations in Liaoning Province from 1966 to 2015, we analyzed the interannual trends of climate factors in the growing season of maize. The photosynthetic, light-temperature, and climate potential productivity were estimated by mechanical method. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of climate potential productivity of maize were analyzed by empirical orthogonal function （EOF） and rotated EOF （REOF） decomposition methods. The results showed that： （ 1 ） The mean temperature during the growth period of maize increased, solar radiation declined, and the precipitation showed a fluctuating decline trend in Liaoning Province from 1966 to 2015. The trend of photosynthetic potential productivity of maize was decreased by phases, light temperature potential productivity and climate potential productivity of maize showed a fluctuating upward trend, but the trends of those changes were not significant. Compared with the 1970s and 1980s, climate potential productivity of maize increased substantially in the early 21st century. （2） The photosynthetic potential productivity was gradually decreased from southwest to northeast, and light-temperature potential productivity showed a belt-typed distribution. The first two modes of EOF analysis explained86.47% of the total variation. The results revealed the spatial distribution of climate potential productivity of maize characterized by an overall consistency, with the midland region being a center. Among them, southern coastal area and eastern region showed a reverse trend in Liaoning Province. （3） The spatial distribution of the climate potential productivity of maize in Liaoning Province could be divided into four typical distribution types. The high value area was located in the middle and southern coastal areas, while the low value area was located in the eastern part and the semi-arid western part of Liaoning.