水资源脆弱性评估的RESC模型及其在东部季风区的应用

RESC Model to Assess Vulnerability of Water Resources and Its Application in the Eastern Asian Monsoon Region of China

针对水资源脆弱性评价面临的问题,提出耦合暴露度、风险、敏感性与抗压性的脆弱性评估模型（RESC模型）,并以中国东部季风区为例进行了研究.结果显示,黄河、淮河、海河和辽河流域因水资源总量明显减少,水功能区达标河长比较低,暴露度高而呈现较高的脆弱性.耦合暴露度及风险后,水资源脆弱性分化程度更为明显.除淮河、海河、黄河等传统的脆弱性区域外,辽河流域面临极度脆弱性,珠江流域等因水质造成脆弱性增加;人口分布广、社会生产活动强、旱灾频发的地方脆弱性得到体现,如淮河流域、成-渝城市区、珠江下游区域等.脆弱性空间分布呈现一定的规律,以华北平原为脆弱性高值区,向北及向南减少.水资源脆弱性评估的RESC模型具有较强的物理机制,能科学评估水资源脆弱性状况.

This study addresses issues on the vulnerability of water resources and provides a vulnerability assessment model（ RESC model） established on the basis of the sensitivity,adaptability of the water resources system,exposure and droughts risk. By using RESC model,the vulnerability of water resources in the eastern Asian monsoon region of China was assessed at the scale of second-class water resource regions. The North China Plain area,Pearl River Delta region,Chengdu-Chongqing urban areas faced the largest drought exposure and risk,and Ningxia,Gansu,Qinghai,Heilongjiang,Jiangxi and other provinces county exposed smaller degree. After coupling sensitivity,exposure and risk,the degree of vulnerability of water resources is more obvious. In addition to traditional vulnerability region of Haihe River and Yellow River,due to water bad quality,Huaihe River and Liaohe River facing extreme vulnerability,considering the degree of exposure and risk,the vulnerability has been strengthened,especially in wide demographic,developed social and productive activities areas such as the Pearl River Basin,the Huaihe River,Chongqing urban area. The RESC model can scientifically assess the vulnerability of water resources in the eastern monsoon region well and can be applied to the full characterization of the spatial pattern of the vulnerability.