中美贸易战的演变历程、经济影响及政策博弈

The Evolution Process,Economic Impact and Policy Game of Sino-US Trade War

从20世纪90年代至今,中美之间已发生6次贸易摩擦。2018年,美国分别以保护"国家安全"和解决"知识产权"问题为借口,对我国实施"232措施"和"301调查"。截至2018年8月底,美方已经宣布的关税措施规模达到史无前例的2530亿美元,我国采取对等反制措施,中美贸易战由此打响。贸易战会对我国经济及金融银行业带来负面影响,但根据一般均衡模型测算结果,贸易战对我国GDP的影响在1%之内;贸易战会抬升金融市场利率,压低汇率。短期贸易战将以"摩擦—升级—谈判—再升级—再谈判—双方妥协"的逻辑演化。调整税收结构,降低企业和个人所得税,同时开征房地产税平衡政府收入,并增加科技研发投入占比是练好内功的治本之法;银行业顺势而为、进行策略性应对,避免系统性风险,是制胜法宝。

Since the 1990 s, there have been six trade frictions between China and the United States. In 2018, the United States, on the pretext of the protection of national security and the resolution of intellectual property issues,undertook the ＂232 measures＂ and conducted ＂301 investigations＂. By the end of August 2018, the United States had announced an unprecedented $253 billion in tariff measures, and China had taken countermeasures, which started a trade war between China and the US. The trade war will have negative impact on China＇s economy, finance and banking industry, but according to the general equilibrium model, the impact of the trade war on China＇s GDP is within 1%. The trade war will push up the interest rate in financial markets and drive down the exchange rate. A short trade war evolves with the logic of ＂friction-escalation-negotiation-reescalation-renegotiation-compromise for both sides＂. Adjusting the tax structure, reducing corporate and personal income tax, and introducing real estate tax to balance government revenue, and increasing the proportion of investment in research and development is fundamental to the enhancement of our national power. The banking industry should be adaptive to the changing situation. Making strategic response to avoid systemic risk is the key to success.