小兴安岭红松苗木物候期变化特征及气象影响因子分析

Phenophase Variation Characteristics and Meteorological Factors of Pinus koraiensis seedings in Xiao Hinggan Mountains

为了探究红松苗木物候期的变化规律,为适时播种、采种、造林、培育等林业生产提供科学依据。利用1991—2014年小兴安岭红松苗木物候期资料及同期气候资料,采用相关分析及最优子集回归方法,分析探讨了红松苗木物候期对气象条件的响应。结果表明:(1)红松苗木芽开放始期、新梢木质化盛期有所推迟,展叶始期和新枝形成盛期都有提前趋势,整个生长季延长。(2)除芽开放始期和顶芽形成盛期外,其他物候期与期间的日照时数呈显著正相关;顶芽形成盛期与气温呈显著负相关;≥10℃积温和日最低气温是影响整个生长期长短的2个主要影响因子,其次是日照时数和平均气温。利用最优子集回归方法建立了红松苗木物候期与气象要素的回归方程。

To explore the change rule of phenophase of Pinus koraiensis seedlings and provide a scientificbasis for correct sowing, seed collecting, planting and cultivation in forestry production, based on thephenophase data of Pinus koraiensis seedlings and the climate at the same time in Xiao Hinggan Mountainsfrom 1991 to 2014, the responses of Pinus koraiensis seedlings’ phenophase to meteorological conditions werediscussed by correlative analysis and optimal subset regression. The results showed that：（1） the beginningperiod of bud opening and the flourishing period of new shoot lignification of Pinus koraiensis seedlings weredelayed, the beginning period of leaf spreading and the flourishing period of new shoots formation wereadvanced, the whole growing season was prolonged;（2） except the beginning period of bud opening and theflourishing-formation period of apical bud, the correlation was found to be significantly positive between theother phenophases and sunshine hours during the corresponding period, the correlation was found to besignificantly negative between the flourishing-formation period of apical bud and temperature. The two mainfactors influencing the length of the whole growth period were the accumulated temperature of ≥10℃ and thedaily minimum temperature, followed by sunshine hours and the average temperature. The regression equationswere established between the Pinus koraiensis seedlings’ phenophase and the meteorological factors based onthe optimal subset regression.