世界粮食不安全现状、影响因素及趋势分析

The Status Quo, Factors and Trends of World Food Insecurity

世界粮食供需基本处于紧平衡状态,但区域不平衡特征明显,一些地区粮食短缺现象依然严重。2000年以来世界饥饿人口数量下降趋势明显,但近期呈现反弹迹象,撒哈拉以南非洲等发展中地区形势严峻。总体来看,有效需求不足是造成世界粮食不安全的重要因素,贸易在全球粮食供应量中的占比较小,无法从根本上解决粮食安全问题。世界粮食生产潜力有条件满足未来粮食消费的有效需求,但受冲突、气候变化等多种因素叠加影响,世界粮食安全形势仍将长期面临多重不利因素的持续挑战。

Food supply and demand around the world is basically in a state of tight balance, but regionalimbalances are obvious, and food shortages in some areas are still serious. Since 2000, the number of hungrypeople in the world has been declining significantly, but signs of rebound appear recently. In general,insufficient effective demand is an important factor to cause food insecurity around the world. Furthermore,trade only dominates a relatively small proportion of global food supply, thus it cannot fundamentally addressfood security issues. Besides, the potential productivity of the world＇s food can conditionally meet the effectivedemand for future consumptions, however, multiple unfavorable factors, such as conflict and climate change,will continually challenge the world food security for a long time to come.