大国脆弱性与风险平衡:印度军事干涉的逻辑

Major Power's Vulnerability and Balance of Risks:The Logic of India's Military Interferences

2017年6月18日,印度军队以安全关切为由越界阻止中国在本国境内修路,从而引发中印洞朗对峙。此次军事行动是印度历史上多次军事干涉行动之一,它们具有一致的内在逻辑,主要体现为印度的大国脆弱性和风险平衡两大特征。充分解释这一逻辑,需要进行规范的学术研究。文章的基本研究思路是:在区分干预与干涉等概念的基础上探讨印度的军事干涉行为,基于新古典现实主义的理论路径建立分析模型,确立分析印度军事干涉的主导变量和中介机制,针对印度军事干涉各环节提出主要命题,并以其历次军事干涉行动为例加以分析。文章通过分析中印洞朗对峙的博弈过程表明,如果印度的主观认识不变,类似洞朗对峙的事件可能还会发生,中国需要在保持中印关系稳定的基础上加强与印度的合作,同时使其明了中国的"底线"与"红线"。

On June 18,2017,on the excuse of security concerns,the Indian army crossed the border and obstructed the Chinese construction of a road on China’s own territory,causing the Doklam standoff between the two countries.This is just one of many military interferences that India has implemented,with all such interferences following a similar logic,which is characterized by two key elements:major power’s vulnerability and balance of risks.Systematic scholarly research is needed to fully explain this logic.The line of thought followed in this article is as follows:a distinction between concepts such as intervention and interference is made as a basis for discussing India’s military interferences;an analytical model is constructed based on theories of neo-classical realism,and is applied to analyze the key variables and mechanisms of India’s military interferences.The article identifies key hypotheses relevant to each aspect of India’s military interferences and incorporates an analysis of historical cases of India’s military interference.Through its analysis of the military standoff between China and India over Doklam,this article demonstrates that unless India’s subjective understanding changes,there will be further such incidents in the future.China needs to enhance its cooperation with India based on maintaining a stable Sino-India relations,while also making India understand China’s bottom line and its red lines.