均势、霸权抑或协调?德约视域下的国际体系结构选择

Balancing,Hegemony or Concert?The Structure Choices of International System from a Dehio's Perspective

国际体系的结构模式问题是国际政治研究中的重点议题。作为兰克之后德国最著名的历史学家之一,路德维希·德约在此议题上为国际关系研究提供了深邃洞见。德约修正了兰克的国际权势斗争机理,聚焦国际求霸行为的多重机制,强调域外大国的独特优势和体系间互动的特殊机理,并将关注视野拓展到全球体系互动之中。在当前国际变迁形势之下,学者对国际体系结构选择问题的关注也重新激活并修正了德约七十年前的思考。在介绍并评述德约理论之路径创新和因果机制的基础上,文章以德约理论框架为切入点,分别讨论了美国对外大战略的转变和中国所面对的大国博弈中的制衡问题,并在当前权势转移与中美竞争背景下试图展现大国协调机制是一种降低国际体系战争风险的可行选择。

The structural form of international system is a focal issue in international political studies.Ludwig Dehio,one of the most famous German historians after Leopold von Ranke,provided profound insights for IR studies.Revising the Rankian rationales on international power struggle,Dehio provided multiple mechanisms on bid for hegemony,which put emphasis on particular advantages of outside powers and special approach of inter-system interaction;moreover,he extended the issue into the interactions within global system.At present,in confront of the international power transition,academic attention on the structure of international system activates and updates Dehio’s thoughts before seventies years.This article reviews innovative approaches and causal mechanism of Dehio’s theoretical framework,which are applied to analyze the change of U S grand strategies and the balancing situation China faced in great-power competition.It aims to show the concert of powers seems to be a feasible mode of decreasing the risk of international systematic war in front to current power transition and Sino-US competition.