试析国际核不扩散体制与日本核政策

The International Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime and Japan's Nuclear Policy

日本对核不扩散体制的认识与参与,经历了一个从消极认识到初步参与、再到寻求发挥所谓"主导作用"的自发倡议的过程。正是在这个过程中,以无核三原则为代表的"无核"政策,依赖美国核保护伞的"依核"政策与追求自身核武器制造潜力的"拥核"政策,三者相互影响,相互作用,形成了兼具多重性与矛盾性为特征的日本核政策。从战后70余年日本核政策来看,"无核"政策只是表面原则,"依核"政策亦是权宜之计,"潜在拥核"才是日本最终选择的核心政策。从该意义上说,日本不是"无核国",亦非"弃核国",而是一个"潜在拥核国"。就其核政策的影响因素而言,相较安全、规范、外交等因素,国内政治,特别是保守政权的认识和意图是内在性的主导因素。

Japan ＇ s understanding and participation in the nuclear non - proliferation regime have undergone a process from a negative resistance, a partial participation, to a full participation in which it seeks to play a so - called ＂leading role＂ in the regime. In that process, Japan＇ s ＂nuclear - free＂ policy, which is represented by the three non -nuclear principles, the policy of ＂dependency on nuclear＂, which relies on American military nuclear umbrella, and the policy of ＂possession of nuclear capacity＂, which pursues the potential of manufacturing nuclear weapons, have interacted with each other and formed Japan＇ s nuclear policy featuring diversity and contradictions. AS for Japan＇ s nuclear policy in the post - war era, Japan＇ s ＂nuclear - free＂ policy is a superficial principle, and the policy of ＂dependency on nuclear＂ is also a measure of expediency. The policy of ＂possession of nuclear capacity＂ is actually Japan＇ s core policy. In that sense, Japan is neither a non - nuclear country nor a country that has abandoned its nuclear capacity, but a country having potential nuclear power. As for factors influencing Japan＇ s nuclear policy, rather than security, normative and diplomatic factors, Japan＇s domestic politics, particularly the understanding and intention of Japan＇ s conservative government, play the leading role.