“口红效应”视域下中国电影票房是否越过拐点?——基于双向固定长面板数据模型的实证分析

An Inflection Point of Box Office in China Happen Based on the Perspective of the “Lipstick Effect”: An Empirical Analysis Based on Two-way Fixed Long Panel Data Model

关于电影票房拐点的研究,对于电影行业的可持续发展、电影票房的持续增长具有重要意义。在"口红效应"视域下,从满足心理慰藉需求和低价格产品偏好两个层面分析中国经济增速放缓、票房结构化增长模式、影院数量变化对电影票房影响的作用机理,并采用双向固定的长面板数据模型进行实证检验。2008年全球金融危机后,中国电影市场"口红效应"明显;电影票房由单一增长转向结构性增长,剧情类和动作类电影票房保持高增长势头,冒险类和喜剧类题材电影呈现出交替领先的发展趋势;影院数量对电影票房的短期效应表现为斜率为正的线性关系,但是长期效应则呈现倒U型曲线关系,且电影票房在影院数量为7009家时越过拐点。

Studying the lipstick effect and the inflection point of box office is of great importance to the sustainable development of film industry and the sustained growth of box office. Based on the perspective of lipstick effect,this study analyzed theoretically the effect of the slowdown of Chinese economic growth,the structured growth modes of the box office,and the number of theaters on the box office,and their mechanism from two respects of consumer psychological comfort needs and consumer preference for low-priced products. The two-way fixed long panel data model was used to conduct an empirical test. Our results showed the lipstick effect has been salient in the Chinese film industry since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008. And the unitary growth of the Chinese box office has shifted to the structured growth,with a prosperous increase of drama and action movies,and a competing growth between the adventure and comedy movies. Additionally,the number of theaters and appear to have a positive linear relationship to the box office in the short term. However,in the long run,there is an inverted U-shaped curve between the number of theaters and the box office,and the box office would cross the inflection point where the number of theaters is 7009.