基于混沌理论的电力系统负荷预测应用

Power System Load for Ecasting Based on Chaos Theory

电能不能大量储存,以及电网负荷呈现出非线性、不确定性、冗杂性等特点,造成传统的电力系统负荷预测方法得不到满意的效果。而混沌理论适用于研究非线性系统,具有对初始条件极其敏感、相似性、普适性等特点,是确定论和概率论之间的纽带,负荷电力系统负荷预测的内在要求。混沌理论在电力系统负荷预测方面的应用越来越得到关注。在总结、归纳原有的传统的预测方法基础上,对混沌理论预测电网负荷做出了详细的分析,新兴的混沌理论为解决电力系统负荷预测提供了全新的思路。

Electrical energy cannot be stored in bulk, and the power load presents the characteristics of nonlinearity, uncertainty and complexity, resulting in power system load the traditional prediction method cannot get satisfactory effect. Chaos theory is applied to the study of nonlinear systems, which is very sensitive to initial conditions, similarity and universality. It is the link between deterministic theory and probability theory, and the inherent requkement of load forecasting for load power system. The application of chaos theory to load forecasting of power system has attracted more and more attention. On the basis of smnmarizing and smnmarizing the original traditional prediction methods, this paper makes a detailed analysis of the prediction of the network load by the chaos theory, and the new chaos theory provides a new idea for solving the load forecasting of the power system.