双口碑效应下新产品扩散研究——以电影为例

New Product Diffusion on Two Effects of Word of Mouth: Evidence from Movies

作为产品体验的集中体现,口碑对新产品扩散的影响已越发明显。本文针对体验经济下新产品扩散问题,将口碑因素引入到经典Bass模型,从口碑规模效应和比例效应两个角度,对经典Bass模型进行了拓展,构建了双口碑效应下新产品扩散模型,并求得了模型解析解,通过性质分析对口碑与产品扩散的相关关系给出了理论证明。以电影为例,分别选取美国好莱坞2010至2014年间奥斯卡最佳提名影片42部和金酸梅奖最差提名影片23部合计65部电影样本进行实证分析,结果显示模型拟合绩效和预测绩效均有较好表现。

In recent years, experience economy characterized by customer-oriented has become the main- stream economic form. The word of mouth（WOM） which reflects the product experience has been more and more important for new product diffusion（NPD）. The NPD research needs to be adapted to the devel- opment of management situation. It is essential to stress the influence of WOM on NPD, and to make full use of WOM to improve the prediction performance. The existing research neglects the synergistic effect of positive and negative WOM and the application in market demand prediction. Therefore, WOM is intro- duced into the classic Bass model, the model is extended from two points of quantity and proportion adjus- ting effect, and the NPD model is established on two WOM effects, called DBM. Moreover, the properties of the solution are analyzed and the main law of NPD on two WOM effects is found. Based on it, 65 Amer- ican movies between 2010 and 2014 including 42 nominations of Oscar Best Picture and 23 nominations of Golden Raspberry Award are chosen to make empirical analysis. The main research conclusion includes the following three aspects： firstly, quantity and proportion effect are two main effects of WOM on NPD. Quantity effect means that interest group affected by adop- tion group become a dynamic process. And proportion effect refers to the different degree of imitation effect of the buyers with positive and negative WOM, which influences the probability of purchasing deci- sions of potential groups. Secondly, the properties of the solution are analyzed and it is found that when net flow of interest groups and proportion of negative WOM increase, the peak time turns shorter and peak sales, cumulative sales at peak time and total sales become larger. But if the imitate effect is much more than innovation effect, the proportion of negative WOM is higher, the attenuation of NPD will get slower. Thirdly, the empirical results suggest that the improved model has better fitting and forecasting perform- ance than the classical model. The meaning of this study includes the following three aspects： f classic Bass model, we reshape the NPD process. Classic Bass model irstly, introducing WOM into the neglects the lost demand problem caused by negative WOM. The group flow process like ＂potential groups-interest group-adoption group - group with positive and negative WOM＂, which enhances the understanding of synergy effect of positive and negative WOM, is pointed out. Secondly, the new product diffusion model on two adjusting effects is established, the analytical solution is solved and the theoretical proof of the correlation between double WOM effect and NPD is given. Thirdly, based on WOM data, the NPD forecasting can reflect the con- sumer experience trend. Enterprises can then formulate the corresponding consumer experience promotion strategy and marketing strategy.