黑龙江省甜菜农业气象年景评估方法

Agrometeorological Year's Harvest of Sugar Beet: Assessment Method in Heilongjiang

探讨甜菜农业气象年景评估方法旨在为甜菜农业生产、种植计划调整及栽培管理提供指导。利用黑龙江省11个甜菜栽培市(地)1986—2012年期间的甜菜单产和播种面积资料、以及同期逐日气温、降水量、日照时数资料,基于气候适宜度指数法和加权系数法构建了各市(地)甜菜农业气象年景逐步回归模型和黑龙江省甜菜农业气象年景评估模型。结果表明,各市(地)甜菜农业气象年景值Fi与关键生育期的综合气候适宜度指数存在极显著的相关关系,均通过高于P<0.02水平的极显著性统计检验;回代检验各市(地)准确率在73.7%~88.5%,黑龙江省准确率为81.0%;2013年预报检验各市(地)平均准确率为76.9%,黑龙江省准确率为100%,2013年黑龙江省甜菜农业气象预测年景和实际年景均为平年。基于气候适宜度指数法和加权系数法构建的黑龙江省甜菜农业气象年景评估模型评估和预报准确率较高,可初步用于黑龙江省甜菜农业气象年景评估、业务预报与服务。

Discussing the assessment method of agrometeorological year＇s harvest of sugar beet aims atproviding guidance for agricultural production, planting plan adjustment and cultivation management of sugarbeet. With the yield and sowing area data of 11 sugar beet cultivation regions from 1986 to 2012 inHeilongjiang, as well as the daily air temperature, precipitation and sunshine time data of the same term, andbased on the climatic suitability index method and weighted coefficient method, the authors built the stepwiseregression models of the agrometeorological year＇s harvest of sugar beet for these regions, and the assessmentmodel of weighted coefficient method in Heilongjiang. The results showed that： there were significantcorrelations between the value Fiof the agrometeorological year＇s harvest of sugar beet and the comprehensiveclimatic suitability index of the key growth period, the correlative coefficients passed a significant statisticaltest of above P0.02, the retrospective test correct rate in the 11 cultivation regions was 73.7%-88.5%, andthat of Heilongjiang was 81.0%. The average correct rate of the forecast test in the study regions was 76.9%,while that in Heilongjiang was 100% in 2013, the forecast and actual agrometeorological year＇s harvest ofsugar beet were all ordinary in 2013. The correct rate of the constructed agricultural meteorological year＇sharvest model in Heilongjiang, which was based on the climatic suitability index method and the weighted coefficient method, is relatively high, and can be used for agricultural meteorological year＇s harvestassessment, and agrometeorological forecast and service in Heilongjiang.