1961—2015年滁州干旱特征分析

Drought Characteristics in Chuzhou During 1961-2015

为更好地开展防灾减灾气象服务,笔者利用1961—2015年逐月降水资料,采用数理统计、Z指数和Mann-Kendall检验等方法研究了滁州1961—2015年的干旱变化特征。结果表明:滁州年降雨气候呈湿化趋势,春、秋季呈干旱化趋势,春季干旱化明显,夏季、冬季呈湿润化趋势,冬季2006—2015年以干旱化为主,值得关注。年及春季大旱以上旱情皆5~6年1遇;季节连旱5年2遇;大旱以上旱情在冬季7年2遇,夏季6年1遇,秋季8年1遇。

The paper aims to provide meteorological service for preventing and reducing disasters. The authorsstudied the drought variation characteristics during 1961-2015 by means of mathematical statistics, Z indexand Mann-Kendall test based on the monthly precipitation data during 1961-2015. The results indicated that：the climate of annual precipitation in Chuzhou had a wetting trend, spring and autumn showed a drought trend,and spring drought trend was obvious; while the climate of summer and winter had a trend of wetting, however,it was noticeable that drought was the main trend of winter climate during 2006-2015. Drought of year anddrought of spring which were above great drought occurred once every 5-6 years; continuous drought of seasonby season occurred twice every 5 years; the frequency of drought which was above great drought occurred twiceevery 7 years in winter, once every 6 years in summer and once every 8 years in autumn.