美菲同盟对中菲南海争端的影响论析

US-Philippine Alliance and Its Influence on Sino-Philippine South China Sea Disputes

从历史上来看,美菲同盟经历了从休眠到恢复再到强化的过程,美国对南海问题的关注和介入程度也不断加深,但是美国仍然拒绝在协防南沙问题上作出明确的安全承诺,并严格限制菲律宾对《美菲共同防御条约》进行扩大化解释。在不同历史时段,美国政策背后的利益考量有所不同。美国的模糊表态使得它能够以较低的成本维持美菲同盟的存在,同时形成对中国的威慑。杜特尔特时期,美菲同盟会继续存在,特朗普政府也不会放弃对南海航行自由的关注,但是中菲关系未来发展的主动权掌握在中国和菲律宾手中。

Historically,the US-Philippine alliance has evolved from dormancy to revitalization,and from revitalization to enhancement,and US's interest and intervention in the South China Sea issues also gradually intensified.However,the United States still refuses to offer Philippine definite military support on the disputed Spratly islands and strictly denies Philippine's expanded explanation of their Mutual Defense Treaty,though the reasons behind US's policy vary in different periods.It is beneficial for the United States to remain ambiguous about its commitment,as it not only maintains its alliance with Philippine at a low cost,but also poses a potential deterrence against China.During Duterte's presidency,the US-Philippine Alliance will remain,and President Trump would highly unlikely give up US's attention towards freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.However,the initiative of future friendly relations is in the hands of China and the Philippines.