境内美元资金市场流动性分析框架及展望

The Analytical Framework and Prospect for US Dollar Liquidity in China

伴随着人民币汇率市场化的推进和跨境资本流动的变化,境内美元资金市场的流动性和价格也会相应做出反应和调整.该文试从价格和数量两方面对影响境内美元资金市场流动性的主要因素进行分析,并对境内美元流动性趋势进行展望.预计未来境内美元存贷差小幅波动,美元流动性整体均衡.

With the advancement of the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate regime and the shift in cross-border capital fows, the liquidity and prices in China’s US dollar money market will react and adjust accordingly. This paper analyzes the main factors affecting the US dollar liquidity in China from price and quantitative perspectives, and looks into the prospect of the US dollar liquidity. It is expected that the gap between US dollar deposits and loans will fuctuate slightly in the future, and the US dollar liquidity will be generally balanced.