军地联动应急指挥体系的不确定性及其管理策略

Uncertainty and Management Strategy of Military and Government Linkage Emergency Command System

在分析当前形势下军地联动应急指挥行动特点的基础上,梳理了军地联动指挥体系在指挥时间、地点、指挥处置对象及指挥运行模式等方面存在的不确定性现象,针对有价值的不确定性应着手利用发挥其价值,而对负相关的不确定性则着手消除的要求,提出了管理军地联动应急指挥体系中不确定性的基本思路:风险感知、经验消除、全方位合作和以流动性对冲不确定性。

On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of the military-land joint emergency command operation under thecurrent situation, it sorts out the uncertainties in the practice of the military-land joint command system in terms of practicecommand time, location, command and disposal targets, and command operation mode. The uncertainty of value should beused to take advantage of the value of the negative correlation and the uncertainty of the negative correlation. This paper putsforward the basic idea of managing the uncertainty in the military-land joint emergency command system： risk perception, experience elimination, all-round cooperation and hedging uncertainty with liquidity.