基于雷电监测数据的雷电流幅值累积概率分布特征

Study on the Cumulative Probability of Lightning Current Amplitudes Based on the Lightning Monitoring Data

利用江西省2006—2015年闪电定位系统监测资料,通过数理统计、回归分析等方法,分析江西省雷电流幅值概率以及雷电流幅值累积概率分布特征。结果表明:基于雷电监测数据获得的雷电流幅值累积概率分布拟合公式,一定程度上反映了江西省雷电流幅值累积概率变化特征。正、负极性雷电流幅值平均概率分布特征均表现出明显的堆积效应,且正极性的集中中心小于负极性;同时,正极性闪电相对负极性闪电出现大幅值的概率更高。负闪电实测曲线与拟合曲线完全一致,总闪电实测曲线与拟合曲线基本一致,拟合效果较负闪电稍差,较正闪电好。推导出的江西省正、负闪电和总闪电的雷电流幅值累积概率分布公式,对解决电力系统中由于雷电流幅值造成的雷击输电线路故障并采取有效的解决方案具有一定参考价值。

Based on the 2006 to 2015 monitoring data of lightning position system in Jiangxi, the cumulative probability and dis tribution characteristics of Lightning Current Amplitudes （LCA） were analyzed by using the mathematical statistics, regression analysis and other methods. The results showed that the cumulative probability distribution fitting formula of the cumulative probability of LCA was obtained based on the monitoring data of lightning, which partly reflected the variation characteristics of lightning current intensity in Jiangxi. The measured curve of negative lightning was in good agreement with the fitted curve, and the measured curve of total lightning was basically consistent with the fitted curve, the fitting effect of which was slightly worse than that of negative lightning. The study can provide certain references to solve transmission line realfunction owing to lightning strike in the power system.