宏观经济因素对中国企业海外并购意愿影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on The Willingness of Chinese Enterprises to Acquire Overseas

使用VAR等模型,实证分析了2008年至2016年期间我国宏观经济变量对企业海外并购意愿的影响。结果表明,GDP增长率、货币供给、境内利率、人民币即期汇率与汇率预期均对企业海外并购产生显著影响,其中汇率预期与利率因素解释了跨境并购规模的50%。虽然人民币贬值本身抑制了对外并购,但贬值预期却加快了企业对外并购步伐。为此,应在深化汇率形成机制改革、保持货币政策稳健的基础上,加强企业对外并购真实目的审核,引导企业理性实施跨境并购。

The VAR model is used to empirically analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on the willingness of overseas mergers and acquisitions in China from 2008 to 2016. The results show that the GDP growth rate, money supply, domestic interest rate, spot exchange rate of RMB and the exchange rate expectation have significant impact on overseas mergers and acquisitions, among which the exchange rate expectation and interest rate thctors explain 50% of the cross-border mergers and acquisitions scale. Although the devaluation of yuan itself inhibited overseas mergers and acquisitions, the exchange rate expectation accelerated their pace. Therefore, we should strengthen the auditing of real purpose of foreign mergers and acquisitions and guide enterprises to implement overseas mergers and acquisitions rationally on the basis of deepening the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism and maintaining sound monetary policy.