高考试题难度预估研究

Research on Estimate of College Entrance Examination Difficulty Level

高考由于其高利害性和敏感性,不能通过考前试测预先掌握试题难度,只能在命题过程中依靠命题人员主观预估确定试题的难度.在命题人员对每个试题进行难度预估后,可以采用各种统计方法对预估值进行数据处理,例如求预估难度与实测难度的相关系数,计算每人预估的平均差异,计算预估值的标准差等.根据数据处理的结果,确定对预估值与实测值的拟合程度和每个命题人员的预估精度,从而在以后的年份科学地利用预估数据预测高考试题的实测难度.

Because of its interest concern and sensitivity, it was accessible the difficulty level could be determined by the subjective estimate of item writing staff, rather than mastering the difficulty value in advance prior the examination. After the item writing staff estimated the difficulty level of the tests, it was accessible the estimate value could be digitally processed by statistical approach, for instance, calculating the coefficient between estimated and actual difficulty value, calculating the average difference of per capita estimates and calculating the standard deviation of estimated value. According to the digitally processed results, the fitting degree of estimate value and actual value and the estimate precision for each item writing staff, could be determined. Therefore, the actual difficulty level of College Entrance Examination could be estimated scientifically by the data in the following years.