基于Bossel指标体系对敦煌盆地水资源可持续利用评价

Water Resources Sustainable Utilization Evaluation Based on Bossel Index System in Dunhuang

地处中国西北的敦煌盆地,具有干旱的气候和脆弱的生态环境,水资源尤其制约当地的社会经济发展。关于水资源可持续利用评价的研究众多,但针对具有独特自然地理状况、脆弱生态环境的干旱区的评价尚为不足。基于系统可持续发展属性细分理论与Bossel指标体系,针对敦煌市独特的气候、水文、地质、人文特征,构建水资源可持续利用评价指标体系,从水资源、社会、经济、生态、人口5个子系统角度综合进行评价。结果表明,敦煌市总体属于弱可持续发展状态,其中水资源和生态环境是复合系统可持续发展的制约因素。通过对定向指标分析:发现系统对共存类指标的变化极敏感,系统对安全、适应、能效类指标较敏感,生存、自由类指标对系统的影响较小。

Dunhuang basin is located in arid Northwest China and has the disadvantages of the harsh climate and fragile ecological environment, especially the water shortages. The evaluation of sustainable utilization of water resources is becoming a hotspot in the field of water resources management. However, the researches on water resources sustainable utilization in arid area are still few and not so mature. Based on the unique ecological features of the arid Northwest China, this paper establishes a basic orientation index framework to evaluate the sustainable development condition of water resources subsystem, ecological subsystem, economic subsystem, social subsystem and population subsystem. The results show that overall Dunhuang holds the weak sustainability with the restrictions of the lack of water resources and the fragile ecologic environment. Furthermore, based on the analysis of orientation indexes, the composite system is extremely sensitive to coexistence class indexes, and relatively sensitive to safety, energy and adaptation indexes, while the influence of survival and freedom indexes to the composite system are little.