辽西地区春季土壤相对湿度变化特征及预测方法研究

A Study on Soil Relative Humidity Variation and Its Forecasting Method During Spring Period in Western Liaoning Province

采用1980-2015年辽西地区土壤相对湿度、降水、气温和80 cm地温资料,对该区春季土壤相对湿度年际变化特征进行研究,并通过相关性分析选取了土壤相对湿度主要影响因子,建立春季土壤相对湿度预测模型。结果表明:(1)春季土壤相对湿度具有明显干化趋势,农业干旱加重;(2)春季土壤湿度主要与底墒、前秋降水、前冬80 cm地温和同期降水呈显著正相关,且与底墒相关性最为显著;(3)基于相关性显著因子建立春季土壤相对湿度预报模型,复相关系数达到0.78,拟合准确率在93.3%以上。

Based on the observed data of soil relative humidity, precipitation, temperature and 80 cm＇s depth temperature from 1980 to 2015 in western Liaoning Province, the variation characteristics of soil relative humidity during spring period is discussed. The major impact factors for soil relative moisture are selected through correlation analysis, and the multiple linear regression models are constructed to predict the soil relative moisture. The results show that： ① the soil relative humidity shows a remarkable desiccation trend, and the agricultural drought is increased. ② There are positive correlations between soil relative humidity at spring period and soil moisture before freezing, precipitation of last autumn, 80 cm＇s depth temperature of last winter, precipitation in the same period. The correlation coefficient is the highest between soil relative humidity and soil moisture before freezing. ③ Based on correlation factors, the forecasting model of soil relative humidity during spring period is constructed. The multiple correlation coefficient is 0.78, and the forecasting precision of model is more than 93.3%.