黑龙江省寒地大豆气候适宜度演变特征

The Evolution Characteristics of Climatic Suitability of Coldland Soybean in Heilongjiang Province

明确寒地大豆生长对气候变化的适应性,对维持大豆高产稳产、保障国内大豆供给和国际贸易秩序具有重要意义。利用黑龙江省62个气象站1961—2016年逐日气象资料,运用空间插值、小波分析等方法,研究了寒地大豆不同发育阶段气候适宜度的时空特征及周期变化。结果表明:1961—2016年寒地大豆全生育期内的温度适宜度呈增大趋势,增大速率为0.0075/10 a,但年际间波动平稳,热量条件较差的Ⅳ区的增大趋势最明显;日照适宜度呈减小趋势,减小速率为0.0089/10 a,年际间波动相对平稳,Ⅱ区的减小趋势最显著;水分适宜度呈不显著的减小趋势,减小速率为0.0004/10 a,但年际间波动相对较大,水分条件较差的Ⅱ区波动最为剧烈;综合气候适宜度呈不显著的减小趋势,减小速率为0.0004/10 a,在光温水的协同作用下,其年际间波动总体平稳,其时空变化特征与水分适宜度相似。全省平均气候适宜度的主周期为5年;各地区气候适宜度的主周期为5~7年。

Understanding the adaptability of soybean growth to climate change in cold region is of great significance for maintaining high and stable yield of soybean, and ensuring domestic soybean supply and international trade order. Based on the daily meteorological data of 62 stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2016, the spatial-temporal characteristics and the periodic changes of climatic suitability of soybean in cold region at different growth showed that： from 1961 to 2016, growth period of soybean in cold stages were studied by spatial interpolation and wavelet analysis. The results there was an increasing trend of the temperature suitability during the whole region, the increase rate was 0.0075/10 a, but its interannual fluctuation was stable. The increase trend in zone Ⅳ with poor heat condition was the most significant. While the sunshine suitability showed a decreasing trend, the decrease rate was 0.0089/10 a, and its interannual fluctuation was relatively stable, the decreasing trend in zone Ⅱ was the most significant. The decreasing trend of water suitability was not significant, the decrease rate was 0.0004/10 a, but its interannual fluctuation was relatively violent, and the fluctuation in zone Ⅱ with poor water condition was the most intense. The decreasing trend of comprehensive climatic suitability was not significant, the decrease rate was 0.0004/10 a, and under the synergistic effect of light, temperature and water, its interannual fluctuation was generally stable. The spatiotemporal characteristic of comprehensive climatic suitability was similar to its water suitability. The main period of the average climatic suitability of the whole province was 5 a, and that in each region was 5-7 a.