摘要
根据2008—2017年闪电定位监测和雷电灾害统计资料,分析地闪活动的时空分布规律,建立包含雷电风险、地域风险和承灾体风险的雷灾易损性综合评价指标体系,运用层次分析法(AHP)构建指标权重判断矩阵,得出易损性综合评价指数R的换算方程并确定各州(市)雷灾易损性等级,形成云南省雷电灾害易损性风险区划。结果表明:昆明、玉溪地闪致灾因子活跃,雷灾易损性综合评价指数高,是雷电灾害极高易损区,受灾涉及行业及影响范围广;普洱、曲靖、丽江、楚雄、红河、西双版纳为雷电灾害高易损区,该等级区域所占比例最大,分布范围最广;保山、昭通、临沧、文山、大理为雷电灾害中易损区;迪庆、怒江、德宏为雷电灾害低易损区,通过加强雷电防御设施建设,扩大预警覆盖面,强化防雷科普宣传能够提高承灾体抵御雷击的能力。
Based on the lightning monitoring and positioning data and the statistical data of lightning disaster of Yunnan Province in 2008--2017, the temporal and spatial distribution of lightning activity was analyzed, and a comprehensive evaluation index system of lightning vulnerability was established, which included lightning risk, regional risk and risk of disaster bearing body. The index weight judgment matrix was constructed by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Comprehensive evaluation index R conversion equation was obtained to determine the vulnerability degree of lightning disaster in each prefecture, and form lightning risk vulnerability zoning in Yunnan Province. The results show that Kunming and Yuxi are the high vulnerability areas of lightning disaster, where population density and economic development are high, the comprehensive evaluation index of the lightning damage vulnerability is high and lightning affects a wide range of areas and industry; the second high vulnerability areas are Pu' er, Qujing, Lijiang, Chuxiong, Honghe and Xishuangbanna, and the areas of this grade are most widely distributed; the medium vulnerability areas are Baoshan, Zhaotong, Lincang, Wenshan and Dali. Diqing, Nujiang and Dehong are low vulnerable areas of lightning disaster. Strengthening the construction of lightning protection facilities, expanding the early warning coverage and enhancing the popularization of lightning protection can improve the resilience to disaster.
作者
刘平英
朱勇
杨宗凯
庄嘉
周清倩
Liu Pingying;Zhu Yong;Yang Zongkai;Zhuang Jia;Zhou Qingqian(Yunnan Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Kunming 650034;Yunnan Climate Center,Kunming 650034)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2018年第22期125-131,共7页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项"云南气候容量研究项目"(CCSF201508)