“十三五”以来中国生猪市场形势分析与展望

China's Pig Market Since the 13th Five-Year Plan and Its Outlook

对"十三五"以来中国生猪市场进行了分析,总结了市场特点,同时对后期市场走势进行了预测。"十三五"以来,受生猪生长周期性变化及环保政策影响,中国生猪存栏量降至历史低位,但规模化程度和养殖水平均有所提高,生猪出栏量及猪肉产量有增无减,加上猪肉进口保持高位,国内猪肉供给逐渐由偏紧趋于平衡。猪肉需求有所回暖,但增幅不明显,主要以季节性波动为主,并呈现结构性变化。受供给变化影响,生猪及猪肉价格总体呈回落态势,生猪养殖利润逐年缩减, 2018年甚至出现连续亏损。预计"十三五"后期中国生猪供需格局较为宽松,生猪及猪肉价格将进入下行通道。

This paper analyzed China＇s pig market since the 13th Five-Year Plan, summarized its characters, and predited its trend. Since the 13th Five-Year Plan, due to the cyclical changes in pig growth and environmental protection policies, pig inventory has dropped to a historical lower point in China. However both large-scale and breeding level have been improved, pig slaughter and pork output has increase too, coupled with the high level of pork imports, so domestic pig supply tended to be balanced from being tight. While pork demand was getting warmer with no obvious increase, but it was mainly characterized by seasonal fluctuations with several structural changes. Affected by supply changes, pig and pork prices were showing a downward trends overall, farming profits of pig have shrunk year by year, and there was even a continuous loss in 2018.During late stage of 13th Five-Year Plan, the supply and demand pattern of pig will be relatively loose and the prices of pig and pork will go down a little bit than early stage of 13th Five-Year Plan.