非洲猪瘟对国内生猪市场的影响

Influence of ASF on Domestic Hog Market

2018年8月以来,中国辽宁、河南、江苏、浙江、安徽、黑龙江等六省先后发生15起非洲猪瘟疫情。2018年8月31日和9月11日,农业农村部先后发布了发生疫情省份及其相邻省份禁止生猪跨省调运的通知,明确限制调运范围覆盖中国整个东部和北部区域。随着调运政策的实施, 9月初国内发生疫情的主产区生猪价格走低、主销区价格上行,大部分非疫情区生猪价格上涨。就目前情况而言,非洲猪瘟的传播方式导致其短期内不会造成生猪产业的去产能化,但加速了"猪周期"提前反转的可能性。

Since August 2018, 15 cases of African swine fever have occurred in six provinces of China,including Liaoning, Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and Heilongjiang. In August 31st and September 11th of 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued notices of banning trans-provincial pigs transportation from epidemic provinces and their adjacent provinces. According to the notices, the restricted areas covered the entire eastern and northern parts of China. With the implementation of the transport policies, in early September, in domestic areas of ASF outbreak, the pig prices of main producing areas went down, the pig prices of main sale areas went high, and the pig prices of most non-epidemic areas rose. As far as the present situation is concerned, the transmission mode of ASF doesn＇t lead to the de-capacity of the pig industry in the short term, but accelerates the possibility of premature reversal of the ＂pig cycle＂.