贸易新形势下国内外大豆产业发展战略取向

Strategic Orientation of Soybean Industry at Home and Abroad under the New Situation of Trade

大豆是中国统筹利用国内外两个市场两种资源最具代表性的产品,未来主要依靠国际市场的趋势很难改变。中美贸易摩擦对国内外大豆市场将带来深远影响,世界大豆生产"北缩南扩"的趋势将继续增强,世界大豆贸易流将会出现显著变化,国际大豆价格波动性增强。美国很难找到大豆出口合作伙伴,其大豆供应链会出现较大调整。短期内中国大豆市场供给会产生压力,但无实质影响,长期有助于中国大豆产业振兴。在贸易新形势下,中国大豆产业发展要继续深化农业市场化和国际化改革,在确保国内大豆产能不降低的前提下,积极参与全球农业战略布局,提升统筹利用好国际市场国际资源的能力。

Soybean is the most representative product for China to make overall use of the two resources in the domestic and international markets. It is difficult to change the trend of soybean mainly relying on the international market in the future. Sino-US trade friction will have a far-reaching impact on soybean markets at home and abroad. The trend of ＂north shrinking and south expanding＂ of world soybean production will continue increasing, the world soybean trade flow will change significantly, and the international soybean price volatility will increase. It is very difficult for the U.S. to find soybean export partners, and its soybean supply chain will have a big adjustment. China＇s soybean market supply will exert pressure in the short term, but it has no real impact. It will help China＇s soybean industry to revitalize in the long term. Under the new situation of trade, the development of China＇s soybean industry should continue deepening the reform of agricultural marketization and internationalization, actively participate in the global agricultural strategic layout on the basis of ensuring the capacity of domestic soybean not to reduce, and enhance the ability to make good use of international resources in the international market.