中国对外反倾销的宏观决定因素研究

Research on Macro Determinants of China's Anti-dumping

在国际贸易中争端不可避免,倾销和反倾销是其中的主因。文章基于1997-2017年间中国对世界各国和地区反倾销调查数据,首先分析了中国对外反倾销调查的时间、地区分布等特征,接着运用面板负二项模型对各项影响中国对外反倾销调查的因素进行实证研究。实证结果显示,中国实际GDP增长率、失业率变动率、GDP平减指数、净贸易条件指数变动率、实际有效汇率指数变动率、进口份额增长率、进口渗透率增长率以及上一年遭受境外反倾销调查数等指数对于中国对外反倾销有着不同的影响。最后,在实证分析结论基础上,重新审视中国对外反倾销环境,提出在国家总体战略框架下的中国对外反倾销策略。

Disputes in international trade are inevitable. Dumping and anti-dumping are the main reasons for it. Based on the China＇s anti-dumping investigation data of various countries and regions in the world from 1997 to 2017, this paper firstly analy zes the characteristics of China＇s anti-dumping, such as time, regional distribution, etc. Then, the paper applies the panel negative binomial model to empirically study the factors influeneing China＇s anti-dumping investigation. The empirical results show that China＇s real GDP growth rate, rate of change in unemployment rate, GDP deflator index, rate of change in net barter terms of trade index, rate of change in real effective exchange rate index, import shares growth rate, import penetration growth rate and the number suffering from foreign anti-dumping last year have different effects on China＇s anti-dumping. Finally, on the basis of the empirical analysis, this paper re-examines China＇s anti-dumping environment, and puts forward China＇s anti-dumping strategy under the overall national strategic framework.