高寒地区春油菜生育期对气候变化的响应

Growth Period of Spring Rape in Alpine Region:Responses to Climate Change

为了得到春油菜生育期对当地气候变化的响应特征,利用1991—2017年高寒地区贵南县气象局观测的春油菜生育期和气象观测资料,采用线性回归方法分析高寒地区春油菜生育期对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:(1)1991—2017年间高寒贵南地区春油菜生育期内平均气温、最低平均气温、稳定通过0℃的积温均呈不显著升高趋势。累积降水量和平均风速呈显著升高趋势,而累积日照时数则呈显著减少趋势。(2)高寒地区春油菜出苗期无明显响应外,成熟期、播种期、抽苔期、五真叶和现蕾期等生育期均表现为随年际的延长而显著延迟的响应特征。开花期延迟趋势不显著。(3)高寒地区春油菜全生育期天数增加趋势不显著,全生育期天数年际间变化幅度大。全生育期天数与同期平均气温、平均最高气温和平均最低气温之间存在极显著的负相关关系,与稳定通过0℃的积温、日照时数和累积降水量正相关极显著。

To get the response features of the growth period of spring rape to local climate change in alpine region of Qinghai, based on the growth period and meteorological observation data of spring rape from Guinanmeteorological bureau during 1991-2017, we analyzed the responses law of the growth period of spring rape to climate change by adopting linear regression method. The results showed that：（1） the average temperature, theaverage minimum temperature and the accumulated temperature steadily through 0℃ showed a non-significantupward trend; the cumulative precipitation and the average wind speed increased significantly, while the cumulative sunshine hours showed a significant decreasing trend;（2） during the seeding stage of spring rape,there was no obvious response to climate change, and the growth period, such as maturation stage, seedingstage, peduncle growth stage, five leaves and squaring period, all significantly delayed with interannualextension, and the delayed trend of flowering period was not significant;（3） the increase of the number of daysduring the whole growth period of spring rape were not significant, and the days of the whole growth periodvaried greatly; there was a significantly negative correlation between the days of the whole growth period andthe average temperature, the average maximum temperature and the average minimum temperature; there wasan extremely and significantly positive correlation between the days of the whole growth period and the accumulated temperature steadily through 0℃, the sunshine hours and cumulative precipitation.