基于@RISK的瓜实蝇对我国苦瓜产业的潜在经济损失评估

The potential economic loss of bitter gourd industry in China caused by Zeugodacus cucurbitae(Coquillett) based on @RISK

瓜实蝇(Zeugodacus cucurbitae (Coquillett))是我国进境植物检疫性害虫,也是重点管理的外来入侵物种,严重危害苦瓜等葫芦科作物。该虫目前局部分布于我国南方地区,其适生区北界已至北京北部及河北中北部,但潜在经济损失尚未见报道。本研究在收集相关资料的基础上,结合瓜实蝇发生为害特点、田间防治情况以及苦瓜产销信息,构建了防治与不防治两种场景下瓜实蝇的潜在经济损失评估模型,并采用@RISK软件和随机模拟方法,预测了瓜实蝇可能给我国苦瓜产业带来的直接经济损失。结果显示,在不防治和防治的场景下,瓜实蝇每年可能给我国苦瓜产业带来的直接经济损失总值分别为440 757.51～2 348 173.45万元和133 742.41～1 416 106.91万元;在投入防治时,每年可以挽回的直接经济损失在223 259.26～1 067 075.85万元之间。因此,建议我国海关总署、农业农村部等有关部门进一步加强针对瓜实蝇的进境检疫、国内发生区瓜果调运管理以及田间防治工作。

Melon fruit fly （Zeugodacus cucurbitae（Coquillett）） is listed as the entry quarantine pest and key management invasive alien species of China,which seriously harms cucurbit crops such as bitter gourd. Melon fruit fly regionally distributes in some south areas of China,and the northern boundary of its suitable area has reached the north of Beijing and north central of Hebei,,however,the potential economic loss has not been reported. Based on collecting relevant data and combining the characteristics of occurrence and field control of Z. cucurbitae as well as the information on the production and marketing of bitter gourd,this study establishs a potential economic loss assessment model for Z. cucurbitae and uti- lizs @RISK to evaluate the potential direct economic loss caused by this fly in China. The results show that the total potential direct economic loss caused by melon fruit fly to bitter gourd industry in China is 4 407.58-23 481.73 million RMB yearly without control and 1 337.42-14 161.07 million RMB yearly under control. Therefore,it can retrieve a direct loss of 2 232.59-10 670.76 million RMB every year under control of Z. cucurbitae. Thus,we suggest that the General Administration of Customs of China,the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and other relevant organizations should further strengthen the entry quarantine measures ,the domestic transport management of melons and fruits from infected areas,and the field control of Z. cucurbitae.