东北地区能源消费碳排放时空演变特征及其驱动机制

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions from energy consumption and its driving mechanism in Northeast China

运用探索性空间分析、冷热点分析、标准差椭圆分析和地理加权回归分析等地学方法,研究了我国东北地区2005—2014年间能源消费碳排放的时空演化特征及其驱动机制.结果表明:①东北三省的能源消费碳排放量从高到低分别为辽宁省、黑龙江省、吉林省,2014年碳排放量分别达到20266、9914、6411万t;②东北三省能源消费碳排放量呈比较显著的全局空间正相关特征,在统计学上显著性检验存在多个冷、热点,其中,热点区主要集中在辽宁省的大连市、沈阳市、本溪市和辽阳市,吉林省的吉林市,以及黑龙江省的大庆市和鸡西市,冷点区主要集中在黑龙江省的大兴安岭市、黑河市、佳木斯市和伊春市;③在省级尺度上东北三省碳排放重心在2005—2014年间呈往东偏移的趋势,在市级尺度上辽宁省和吉林省碳排放重心往西偏移,而黑龙江省碳排放重心则往南偏移;④在省级尺度上,能源消费碳排放主轴方向为"西南-东北",但有往北旋转的趋势,黑龙江省能源消费碳排放主轴呈现往北旋转的趋势,辽宁省和吉林省的能源消费碳排放主轴方向则呈往东旋转的趋势;⑤东北地区影响能源消费碳排放量的主要驱动因素的影响程度排序为:人均GDP>产业结构>总人口数>城市化率>老龄化.

Exploratory spatial data, cold-hot spot analysis, standard deviation and geographical weighted regression analysis were used to research the spatial and temporal evolution and its driving factor of carbon emissions from energy consumption from 2005--2014. We found that：①Carbon emissions from energy consumption in the northeast china from high to low is as follows： Liaoning Province, Heilongjiang Province and Jilin Province, the volume of carbon emissions is 20266, 9914 and 6411 million tons respectively in 2014 ;②Through the cold-hot spot analysis of global spatial autoeorrelation, there are many hot spots and cold points in statistical significance test due to the global spatial autocorrelation is strong, the hot spot area was concentrated in Dalian, Shenyang, Benxi and Liaoyang in Liaoning Province, Jilin in Jilin Province, Daqing and Jixi in Heilongjiang Province, the cold spot area was concentrated in Daxinganling, Heihe, Jiamusi and Yichun in Heilongjiang Province ; ③The center of carbon emissions in Northeast China shows a trend of shifting to the east from 2005 to 2014. Compared with the southward migration trend of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang＇s Province, the center of carbon emissions in Liaoning and Jilin has the trend of westward migration; ④From the provincial level, the axis of energy consumption carbon emission is always ＂southwest -northeast＂, which has a trend of northward rotation. Compared with the eastward migration trend of main axis direction in Liaoning Province and Heilongjiang Province, the migration trend of main axis direction in Jilin is going north; ⑤ According from the influence degree of carbon emissions from energy consumption in the northeast China, the main driving factors from big to small is as follows： per capita GDP〉 industrial structure 〉 total population 〉 urbanization rate 〉 aging.