中国人口年龄结构、居民储蓄率和资产负债表的变动对银行体系的影响

The Impact of Population Age Structure, Household Savings Rate and Balance Sheet on the Banking System in China

本文从财务指标的角度构建了一个银行业的分析框架,分析了中国人口年龄结构的变化对中国经济增长速度、投资收益和储蓄率带来的影响,并将人口年龄结构变化带来的影响引入到该分析框架中后,发现由于投资需求的下降、存款增速的下降,银行生息资产规模的扩张将受到限制,市场均衡利率的下降和存款利率市场化的推进将压缩净息差空间,因此,银行地净利息收入增长速度将会逐渐放缓。经济增速的换挡期还特别容易导致资产质量的下降。在这样的背景下,本文提出,银行业必须要主动求变,改变重资产、重资本、重规模、重速度的发展方式,实行轻资产、轻成本、高科技的发展策略,适应新形势的发展变化,并提出了具体的落实措施。

This paper constructs an analysis framework of the banking industry from the perspective of financial indicators, analyzes the Chinese population age structure changes on the influence of Chinese economic growth rate, investment income and savings rates, and the impact of changes in the age structure of the population into the analysis framework, found that due to the investment demand Drop down, deposit growth, bank earning assets expansion will be restricted, the decline in market equilibrium interest rate and the deposit interest rate market will promote the compression of the net interest margin, therefore, the bank net interest income growth rate will gradually slow down. The shifting period of economic growth is also likely to lead to a decline in asset quality. In this background, in this paper, the banking industry must take the initiative to change, change the development mode of heavy assets, capital, scale, speed, development strategies of implementing asset light, light, high cost, adapt the development of the new situation, and puts forward specific measures of real fall.