虚拟经济的自我循环及其与实体经济的关联的理论分析和实证检验--基于美国1947-2015年投入产出数据

Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test of the Self-circulation of Fictitious Economy and Its Relationship with Real Economy:Based on the US Input and Output Data from 1947 to 2015

本文依据虚拟经济理论,分析了虚拟经济自我循环及与实体经济的关联机理,通过构建"虚拟经济—实体经济"三部门投入产出模型,分离了虚拟经济中的实体经济和实体经济中的虚拟经济,在此基础上,测度虚拟经济中自我循环的总量和服务于实体经济的总量;考察了虚拟经济对实体经济的关联性;分析了虚拟经济与实体经济分别对就业、税收和投资等的宏观经济影响。理论分析认为,虚拟经济的基本部门是金融和房地产,其自我循环指在金融和房地产内部以自行增殖为目的的、脱离以实体经济为价值决定的虚拟资本的独立化运行。实证检验发现:美国虚拟经济自我循环规模膨胀显著,对自身的关联性高企,而对以制造业为主的第Ⅰ类实体经济关联性渐弱,对以服务业为主的第Ⅱ类实体经济关联性持稳。虚拟经济对经济总体的影响力和感应度呈反向变化,与之相对,第Ⅰ类实体经济的影响力感应度明显减弱,第Ⅱ类实体经济则相对平稳。另外,基于增加值结构的宏观效应表明,虚拟经济投资引力和税赋压力优于实体经济,但带动就业的效果有限。

Abstract： Based on the theory of fictitious economy, this paper analyzes the self-circulation of fictitious economy and its relationship with real economy. By constructing the ＂fictitious economy-real economy＂ three-sector input-output model, the real economy in fictitious economy and the fictitious economy in the real economy are separated. On this basis, this paper measures the total amount of self-circulation of the fictitious economy and the total amount of services to the real economy, examines the relevance of the fictitious economy to the real economy, analyzes the macroscopic view of the fictitious economy and the real economy on employment, taxation and investment. According to theoretical analysis, the basic sectors of the fictitious economy are finance and real estate. The self-circulation refers to the independent operation of fictitious capital that is determined by self-expansion within the finance and real estate sectors and is not determined by the value of the real economy. The empirical test shows that the scale of the self-circulation of the fictitious economy in the United States has expanded significantly, and its relevance to itself is high, while the relevance of the first type of real e conomy dominated by manufacturing is weakening, and the relevance of the second type of real economy dominated by the service industry is stable. The influence and induction of the fictitious economy on the overall economy are reversed. In contrast, the influence of the first type of real economy is significantly weakened, while the real economy of the second type is relatively stable. In addition, the macroscopic effect based on the value-added structure shows that the investment attraction and tax pressure of the fictitious economy are better than the real economy, but its effect on driving employment is limited.