深圳市2001—2015年常住居民子宫颈癌发病动态及趋势分析

Dynamics and trend of cervical cancer incidence in Shenzhen,2001-2015

目的动态分析研究2001—2015年期间深圳市女性宫颈癌的发病趋势,为评价深圳市宫颈癌防治策略提供参考。方法根据深圳市肿瘤发病登记处收集的2001—2015年女性宫颈癌发病数据和相应年份的人口资料,计算宫颈癌发病率,以及标化发病率,利用Joinpoint软件进行趋势分析,利用灰色模型(grey model,GM)预测未来年份宫颈癌发病率。结果深圳市2001—2015年肿瘤登记处共登记女性宫颈癌6 192例,总体发病率为9.48/10万,中国人口标化率为6.99/10万,世界人口标化率为8.37/10万。从时间趋势上看,宫颈癌发病率呈上升趋势,世标率从2001年的1.74/10万上升至2015年的11.51/10万,AAPC为14.3%(Z=6.7, P<0.001)。15年间深圳市女性宫颈癌平均发病年龄增大,最低为2006年(40.3±9.7)岁,最高为2015年(48.4±11.4)岁,差异具有统计学意义(F=31.50,P<0.01)。灰色模型预测结果显示,2016—2018年宫颈癌发病率分别为13.12/10万,12.92/10万, 12.71/10万,上升趋势得到一定的遏制。结论子宫颈癌仍然是深圳女性最常见的恶性肿瘤之一,仍需坚持实施目前的宫颈癌筛查项目,推广宫颈癌疫苗的使用。

Objective To understand the status and trend of cervical cancer incidence in Shenzhen City from 2001 to 2015,so as toevaluate the policies and strategies of prevention and control.Methods The incidence of cervical cancer from 2001 to 2015 was calculated based on the data from Shenzhen Cancer Register.The age-standardized rates were calculated.The Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to assess the trend of incidence,and the grey model was performed to forecast the incidence of cervical cancer.Results There were 6 192 new cervical cancer cases in Shenzhen City from 2001 to 2015,the crude incidence of cervical cancer was 9.48/10^5,the age-standardized rate by Chinese population was 6.99/10^5,and the age-standardized rate by world population was 8.37/10^5.The World age-standardized incidence increased from 1.74/10^5 in 2001 to 11.51/10^5 in 2015 with anaverage annual percent change（AAPC）of 14.3%（Z=6.7,P〈0.001）.The average age for cervical cancer patients increased obviously,and the average age was（40.3±9.7）years in 2006,while the average age was（48.4±11.4） years in 2015（F=31.50,P〈0.01）.The grey model prediction demonstrated that the annual crude incidence rates of cervical cancer were 13.12/10^5,12.92/10^5,and 12.71/10^5,respectively from 2016 to 2018.Conclusion s The cervical cancer is thenormal cancer in women in Shenzhen City.We still need to keep on carrying out the cervical cancer screening program and promoting the use of cervical cancer vaccine.