1990—2014年典型国家技术变革与结构调整的碳排放驱动效应测度

Study on measurement of carbon-driving effects from technological change and structural adjustment in typical countries from 1990 to 2014

全球碳减排背景下不同发展水平国家根据共同但有区别的原则,不断采取技术变革和结构调整等碳减排策略,以便达到追求经济发展与实现碳减排目标的良好契合。本文以1990—2014年间世界上34个不同收入水平的典型国家为例,在VAR模型基础上,利用脉冲响应及方差分解分析来探究以碳排放强度、能源强度表征的技术变革和以可再生能源占比、工业化率表征的结构调整对碳排放的驱动效应,以便为各国经济社会发展过程中的碳减排实践提供参考。结果表明,高收入国家技术变革和结构调整皆有促进碳减排作用,其中碳排放变动的贡献度受结构调整主导,平均贡献度为22.71%;而中高等收入国家和中低等收入国家的技术变革对碳排放的正负影响效果不一,工业化率绝大部分对碳排放具有促进作用,可再生能源占比除了OPEC国家皆具有明显减排效果,其中碳排放变动的贡献度受技术变革主导,平均贡献度分别为21.41%和25.60%。

In the context of global carbon emission reduction, countries with different levels of development, based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibility（CBDR）, continue to adopt carbon emission reduction strategies such as technological change and structural adjustment in order to achieve a good fit between pursuing economic development and achieving carbon emission reduction targets. Taking 34 typical countries in the world with different income levels from 1990 to 2014 as an example, this study implemented an impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis to explore the driving effect of technological changes characterized by carbon intensity and energy intensity, structural adjustment characterized by proportion of renewable energy and industrialization rate on carbon emissions based on VAR model, in order to provide a reference for the practice of carbon emission reduction in the economic and social development in various countries. The results demonstrated that technological change and structural adjustment in high-income countries all play a major role in promoting carbon emission reduction. The contribution of carbon emission changes is dominated by structural adjustment with an average contribution of 22.71%, while technological changes in upper-middleincome countries and lower-middle-income countries have different effects on the carbon emissions. The vast majority of industrialization rate plays a most important role in promoting carbon emissions. The proportion of renewable energy except for OPEC countries have significant emission reduction effects, of which the contribution of changes in carbon emissions dominated by technological change, with an average contribution of 21.41% and 25.60%, respectively. According to the actual situation of different income countries, this study puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of energy structure, industrial structure and technology.