基于GIS的中国城市房地产泡沫的空间传染性分析——以2006～2014年35个大中城市为例

Study on the Spatial Infection of Real Estate Market Bubble Based on GIS in China:Case Study of 35 Metropolises in 2006 and 2014

关于房地产泡沫空间传染性的研究议题,已有经济学模型存在一定的局限性,不能够有效地细致地展开探讨。以中国大中城市为例,基于GIS的空间计量模型对中国城市房地产泡沫的空间传染性进行分析。结果表明:中国房地产泡沫具有空间传染性,且在时间尺度上,传染能力具有明显增强的趋势,在空间尺度上,传染能力表现为由东部沿海向西北内陆逐渐递减的空间趋势。(2) 2006年,北京、上海、广州等城市成为了中国房地产泡沫的空间传染源; 2014年,传染源发生了明显转移,广州等城市成为了空间传染源。(3)在中国经济进入新常态的背景之下,需要有层次地采取相关措施,以有效遏制房地产市场引起的经济泡沫,以免阻碍地区经济转型和产业升级。

It is widely agreed that the spatial infection of real estate bubble exists in China. However,it is difficult to further investigate the issue in detail by using economic methods. To demonstrate spatial infection of real estate market bubble from perspective of geography in China,we conduct a case study of 35 metropolises by developing the method of symbolic vector data,spatial autocorrelation models,and spatial interpolation model based on GIS. The results indicate that the spatial infection of real estate bubble exists between Chinese cities.Moreover,its spatial infection capability becomes stronger than before. And the capability has a hierarchy decrease from the eastern areas to northwestern areas in China. Secondly, three source cities of infection（ Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou） is identified in 2006,but only Guangzhou is identified in 2014. It suggests that a spatial transfer of source cities of infection has happened in recent years. Finally,the government should adopt some hierarchy strategies to stop the spatial infection of real estate bubble between Chinese cities under the background of ＂new normal＂economic.