宏观调控理论的创新思维、模型构建与中国实践

Innovative Thinking, Model Building and China’s Practice of Macro-Control Theory

宏观调控是中国社会主义市场经济建设实践的理论升华，是基于中国经济现实的理论结晶．不仅对中国适用，还具有较为广泛的适用性。本文从“有效的市场和有为的政府”有机结合的视角．构建能够较好刻画现实经济的理性综合模型。以此为基础，构建宏观调控理论模型并进行阐释．探索宏观调控的目标调整和政策框架体系，同时分析中国的实践。研究发现．宏观调控是政府作用的重要形式．是一个兼具供给侧和需求侧调控的动态体系．既对宏观经济的短期平衡有重要作用．同时也能从长期影响经济的潜在增长。中国宏观经济调控的逻辑．是坚持问题导向。针对不同时期面临的突出风险和问题，理性综合选择“供给管理”与“需求管理”组合．给出具体措施．并在实践中检验、调整。从本质上看。供给侧结构性改革模型是宏观调控模型在限定条件下的特殊情形．

Macro-control is the theoretical sublimation of the practice of China＇s socialist market economy construction, considered as the theoretical achievement based on China＇s economic reality. It is not only applicable to China, but also can be applied in other countries. This paper builds a rational comprehensive model, which can depict the real economy well, from the perspective of ＂effective market and promising government＂ . Based on this, the paper constructed and explained a theoretical macro-control model, explored the target adjustment and policy framework of macro-control, and analyzed the practice of China＇s economy. From the study, it is found that macro-economic control is an important form of government＇s role, functioning as a dynamic system with both supply side and demand side regulation. It plays an important role in keeping the balance of macro-economy in the short term, and affects the potential economic growth in the long run. The logic of China＇s macro-economic control is to choose the combination of supply management and demand management rationally and compre hensively, considering the outstanding risks and problems faced in different periods, and insisting on problem-orientation. In this way, specific measures can be adopted, tested and adjusted in practice. Basically, the supply-side structural reform model can be considered as a special case of the macro-economic control model with limited conditions.