经济发展水平对跨境资本流动的门限效应——兼评中国“非理性”对外投资

Threshold Effects of the Economic Developments on Cross Border Capital Flows——A Review of China’s Irrational Overseas Investments

2016年中国对外直接投资同比激增44．1％，2017年上半年又同比陡降42．％．跨境资本流动引起政府和学术界的广泛关注。本文运用Alfaroeta1．（2014）构建的国际资本流动数据库．逐步滤出跨境资本净流入中不满足“新古典”假定的干扰成分．将现实的资本流动逼近为“新古典”世界中的资本流动．并采用Chudiketa1．（2017）提出的参数异质性动态面板门限模型（Dynamic Heterogeneous Threshold Panel Data Model）．检验了经济发展水平是否对跨境资本流动存在门限效应。研究发现．经济发展到一定阶段之后，跨境资本净流入的规模会出现结构性下降．支持了新古典理论关于资本流动方向的判断，“卢卡斯悖论”并未得到经验支持。另外，就世界一般性规律而言，中国经济发展还没有达到跨境资本流动发生结构变化的水平．还不足以支撑大规模资本持续净流出。

In 2016, China＇s overseas direct investment rose by 44.1%, and dropped by 42.9% in the first half of 2017. The cross-border capital flows caused widespread concern in the government and academia. In this paper, based on the international capital flow database established by Alfaro et al. （2014）, this paper gradually filters out cross-border capital inflows that are not in accordance with the new classical assumption, and uses the dynamic heterogeneous threshold panel data model proposed by Chudik et al. （2017） to test whether there is a threshold effect in the relationship between the economic devel- opment level and cross-border capital flows. The resuhs show that, while the economic development reaches a certain stage, the scale of the net cross-border capital inflows will decrease permanently. Generally speaking, China＇s economic develop- ment has not yet reached the threshold level, which means the current level of economic development is insufficient to support sustained large-scale capital outflows, thus irrational overseas investment should be properly controlled.