影子银行对中国货币政策的异化效应及应对研究

The Alienation Effect of Shadow Bank on China's Monetary Policy and Its Countermeasures

2018年,我国货币政策的制定和实施面临着更加复杂的内外部环境,其中影子银行的大量出现使货币政策的传导机制和最终效果产生了异化。在分析中国影子银行特殊性的基础上,探讨了其对于中国货币政策传导机制和最终目标的异化效应。由于影子银行具有"银行的影子""非典型性脱媒""剪刀差式风险"等三大特征,导致中国货币政策的传统操作工具和操作目标发生异化,并使得货币供给量的传统中介目标失效,同时也使利率这一新中介目标的效力得以提升。但是,由于信贷配给下的利率双轨制、土地垄断下的收益双轨制和监管缺失下的体系双轨制等制度性因素的影响,导致资金脱实向虚、资产泡沫不断膨胀、金融风险持续累积,最终使货币政策的最终目标产生异化。为了改善货币政策的效果,需要从推进利率市场化改革、加强影子银行监管和完善配套制度建设等三个方面采取相应的对策。

During 2018, China＇ s monetary policy encounters more complicated environment at home and abroad. Especially the emergence of shadow bank leads to the dissimilation of transmission mechanism and final effect. Based on analyzing the specificity of shadow bank in China, the dissimilation effect is explored. Due to the characteristics of shadow bank which is ＂bank＇ s shadow＂, ＂atypical disintermediation＂ and ＂scissors difference risk＂, the traditional implement tool and goal are dissimilated, and the traditional intermediary goal of money supply becomes ineffective. Meanwhile the new goal of interest becomes effective. However, due to the institutional effect of dual interest rate system under credit rating, the dual revenue system under land monopoly and the dual system track under regulation deficiency, capital does from real field to virtual field, the asset bubble becomes bigger and bigger, the financial risk accumulates gradually, which makes the final goal of monetary policy dissimilated. So in order to improve the effect, we should take corresponding policy from the perspective of advancing interest rate marketization reformation, reinforcing the regulation of shadow bank and perfecting the supporting system.